New Delhi: As the polling day (November 30) approaches in Telangana, all political parties, except the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), have clearly set their sights on the Muslim vote that comprises around 13% of the electorate. Political rhetoric and declarations were carefully worded to woo the community. But, given the nature of statements of prominent Muslim organisations and influential clerics, it is unclear who will overwhelmingly bag the Muslim vote. A fractured Muslim vote remains a possibility.

Those familiar with recent developments say that this is because the opinion of Muslims continues to be divided. To vote for the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) or the Congress remains a key question.

For instance, a panel of well known Muslim clerics, which included Maulana Khalid Saifullah Rahmani, the All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB) president, took cognisance of this very fact. An excerpt from a statement the panel released reads thus: “Undoubtedly, on this occasion the scenario should be that the support for any party be based on consensus. Or, at least a decision should be based on the view of the large majority. But taking into consideration the ground realities, it appears that the community’s opinion is divided. This is a very delicate situation.”

The statement further underscores the need to stop Muslim votes from being divided, and points out that it is on account of this possibility that the panel decided not to support any political party. Instead, it requested the members of the community to vote for a candidate who has secular credentials, one “who is less harmful for the community”.

Given the fact that Maulana Khalid is the fifth president of the AIMPLB, he continues to remain an influential figure. Though a non-political figure, he enjoys the support of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) president Asaduddin Owaisi, who in July this year, led a delegation of clerics, including Maulana Khalid, to Telangana chief minister K. Chandrashekhar Rao’s camp office in Pragathi Bhavan to urge him to not support the Uniform Civil Code.

In yet another example, the Jamaat-e-Islami’s Telangana chapter refrained from announcing their support to either the Congress or the BRS. Instead, its political committee chose to support individual candidates contesting the 119 assembly constituencies in Telangana. Unlike their previous stance, the Jamaat chose to support 70 Congress candidates, 40 BRS candidates, and seven AIMIM candidates. This is a change in its approach. In 2014, the Jamaat supported the Congress, and in 2018, after extensive deliberations and sharing concerns with the top party leadership, announced its support to the BRS [then Telangana Rashtra Samithi].

“In the meetings which led to the announcement, there were internal differences between political committee members. Some wanted to go ahead and openly support the BRS. But others felt that the situation was changing, and that the inroads Congress appears to have been making must not be ignored. Eventually, extensive consultations and ground surveys were done. They decided to go for a non-partisan approach,” a Jamaat member closely following the developments told The Wire.

In yet another example, Jamiat-i-Ulama’s two factions ended up throwing their weight behind the two contenders. While the Jamiat’s Maulana Arshad Madani faction, with its headquarters in Yakutpura in the Old City, endorsed the BRS, the Maulana Mahmood Madani faction, which operates from Amberpet’s Zam Zam Masjid, supported the Congress. In fact, in the run up to the elections, the latter was busy extensively touring many of Telangana’s 33 districts to question CM KCR’s policies and treatment of Muslims, especially those residing in districts other than Hyderabad.

Also Read: Can the Resurgent Congress Wrest Telangana from the BRS?

Muslims constitute over 50 lakh of Telangana’s population. In the absence of official figures, the number of Muslim voters is estimated to be in the vicinity of 40 lakh. According to the 2011 census, the concentration of Muslims is highest in composite districts of Hyderabad, Ranga Reddy and Nizamabad. Members of political parties believe that there are around 30 assembly constituencies where the Muslim vote matters.

The change in sentiment is palpable. A section of the Muslim community appears to be disenchanted with the BRS. For their part, the pink party did make impressive budgetary allocations, with a significant portion going to the over 200 minority residential schools, and other minority welfare schemes. During its tenure, Hyderabad, once a riot-prone city, did not see any major communal clash. Several Muslims themselves have admitted that Telangana and Hyderabad are relatively much safer compared to states in North India.

“KCR has backed many of Narendra Modi’s policies, including demonetisation and GST. The promised 12% reservations for Muslims has not materialised. But more importantly, there is a persistent perception among many Muslims that KCR has a secret understanding with Modi. This perception is unlikely to fade. Many are talking in such terms,” said Mohammed Faiz (name changed), a small businessman from Malakpet, an AIMIM stronghold.

Some believe that the only way to remove the BJP from power is to support the Congress. This is likely because parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held mid-next year, shortly after the assembly elections. Given the differing opinions, it remains unclear how the Muslim community will vote. The answer will be clear only on December 3, when votes will be counted.