Exit Polls: Close Battle Between Congress and BJP in Hindi Belt; BRS on Backfoot in Telangana
New Delhi: The exit polls show a close contest between the Congress and the BJP in the three Hindi-belt states – Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and MP – with various agencies giving a slight edge to one over another.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
Soon after polling ended on November 30, the exit polls for five states – Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Mizoram – which voted this month to elect new assemblies were released. Among these states, the first two had Congress governments and the third BJP. The Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is in power in Telangana while the regional Mizo National Front (MNF) is at the helm in the northeastern state.
In Rajasthan, the Axis India Today survey – which has the best record of getting its exit polls right – threw up a surprise when it predicted that Congress under the leadership of Ashok Gehlot may lead the BJP by a slight margin. Previous opinion polls believed that the state would follow its historic precedent of voting out the incumbent government and predicted a comfortable victory for the BJP. Most other exit polls, however, gave the edge to the BJP.
At the same time, the exit polls in Chhattisgarh also showed a neck-and-neck fight between the Congress and BJP, again contradicting previous opinion polls that showed a comfortable victory for the incumbent Congress. The Axis India Today poll gave a slight edge to the Congress.
In Madhya Pradesh too, the two parties are engaged in a close battle, the polls show. However, the Axis India Today poll predicted a landslide victory for the BJP in the state.
In Telangana, the grand old party may shock the BRS and chief minister K. Chandrashekhar Rao (KCR), some polls showed while others predicted a close contest. The BJP could play spoilsport if it splits the anti-incumbency role, while Asaduddin Owaisi’s MIM will throw its numbers behind the BRS.
In Mizoram, the Mizo National Front (MNF) led by chief minister Zoramthanga is in a close battle with fellow regional player Zoram Nationalist Party (ZNF). The Congress may have a say in the outcome if a hung assembly is elected while the BJP may fail to make any impact.
Rajasthan (Majority mark: 100)
| BJP | Congress | Others | |
| India Today-Axis My India | 80-100 | 86-106 | 8-16 |
| ABP News-C Voter | 94-114 | 71-91 | 9-19 |
| Jan Ki Baat | 100-122 | 62-85 | 14-15 |
| India TV- CNX | 80-90 | 94-104 | 14-18 |
| Times Now-ETG | 108-128 | 56-72 | 13-21 |
| News 24 – Today’s Chanakya | 77-101 | 89-113 | 2-16 |
Madhya Pradesh (Majority mark: 115)
| BJP | Congress | Others | |
| India Today – Axis My India | 140-162 | 68-90 | 0-3 |
| ABP News – C Voter | 88-112 | 113-137 | 2-8 |
| Jan Ki Baat | 100-123 | 102-125 | 5 |
| News 24 – Today’s Chanakya | 151 | 74 | 5 |
| Times Now – ETG | 105-117 | 109-125 | 1-5 |
| India TV – CNX | 140-159 | 70-89 | 0-2 |
Chhattisgarh (Majority mark: 45)
| BJP | Congress | Others | |
| ABP News – C Voter | 36-48 | 41-53 | 1-5 |
| India Today-Axis My India | 36-46 | 40-50 | 1-5 |
| Jan Ki Baat | 34-45 | 44-52 | 0-2 |
| India TV-CNX | 30-40 | 46-56 | 3-5 |
| News 24-Today’s Chanakya | 33 | 57 | 0 |
| Times Now – ETG | 32-40 | 48-56 | 2-4 |
Telangana (Majority mark: 60)
| BJP | Congress | BRS | Others | |
| News 24 – Today’s Chanakya | 7 | 71 | 33 | 0 |
| ABP News – C Voter | 5-13 | 49-65 | 38-54 | 5-9 |
| India TV-CNX | 2-4 | 63-79 | 31-47 | 5-7 |
| Jan Ki Baat | 7-13 | 48-64 | 40-55 | 4-7 |
Mizoram (Majority mark: 20)
| MNF | ZPM | Congress | BJP | |
| Jan Ki Baat | 10-14 | 15-25 | 5-9 | 0-2 |
| ABP News-C Voter | 15-21 | 12-18 | 2-8 | 0 |
| India TV-CNX | 14-18 | 12-16 | 8-10 | 0-2 |
| India Today- Axis My India | 3-7 | 28-35 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
